FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Saturday, 22 August 2026
West Ham United 1–2 Charlton AthleticMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 22 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had West Ham United at 70%, draw at 20%, Charlton Athletic at 10%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was West Ham United to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
United win
70%
Draw
20%
Athletic win
10%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.12 – 0.70
Total 2.82
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 90%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 20%
✗ Lost