CF Montréal vs 
New England Revolution
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Over 1.5 Goals lands at 75% because Montréal's 1.66 xG dominates New England's 1.20, creating a 0.46 gap that suggests enough attacking volume for multiple goals.
CF MontréalstepNew England RevolutionCF Montréal average 5.8 corners per game at home this season (23 competitive matches). New England Revolution average 4.5 corners per game away from home this season (20 competitive matches).
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
CF Montréal vs New England Revolution — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between CF Montréal and New England Revolution — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: CF Montréal 45% · draw 30% · New England Revolution 25%.
Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.
CF Montréal 2–2 New England RevolutionModel estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.