What we expect
In plain English
Santa Clara should get at least a draw here. They have won four of their last six, the model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Casa Pia, and they have won three of the last five between them. The model sees around two goals in it.
What would change the call
Santa Clara or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Bawler's model rates this match: Santa Clara are favoured (49% win probability vs 23% for Casa Pia, 28% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Casa Pia 0-1 Santa Clara (13.3% probability). Expected total goals: 2.38.
How does Bawler predict Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Casa Pia 23%, the draw 28% and Santa Clara 49%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
BTTS: No (54% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 0.92 and away expected goals 1.45.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.38. The lean is Under 2.5 (likely a tighter affair).