FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 07 November 2026
Alverca 1–1 Casa PiaMatch recap · Saturday, 07 November 2026
How Bawler's pick did
Bawler's pickWon
Alverca or Draw✓
Alverca Over 9.5 Shots✓
Dawda Camara 2+ Shots✓
Logged before kickoff, settled from the final stats. Bawler's pick record →
Pre-match probability vs result
Alverca win
54%
Draw
25%
Result
Casa Pia win
20%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.0
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.