Cape Verde 0–0 Saudi ArabiaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 27 June 2026

0–0

Draw

> Model verdict

✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Cape Verde at 29%, draw at 34%, Saudi Arabia at 37%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Saudi Arabia to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Verde win

29%

Draw

34%

Actual ✓

Arabia win

37%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.13 – 1.30

Total 2.42

Actual

0 – 0

Total 0 (-2.4 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 2.4 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed

Banker

Pre-match: 74%

✓ Won

Dark Horse

Draw

Pre-match: 24%

✓ Won

Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.43x

Under 10.5 Corners✓
X2✓
Over 1.5 Goals✗
Under 7.5 SOT✓

> What we said pre-match

"Draw or Saudi Arabia wins at 74% combined probability gives X2 the edge when Cape Verde's 1.13 xG barely outpaces a narrow 0.17-goal deficit."

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