> MATCH.PREDICT()ยทWorld: World CupยทSaturday 27 Jun, 00:00 UTC
Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain โ every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Draw or Saudi Arabia wins at 74% combined probability gives X2 the edge when Cape Verde's 1.13 xG barely outpaces a narrow 0.17-goal deficit.
Win probability
29.0% home33.7% draw37.2% away
xG chain โ base โ adjustments โ final ฮป
Cape VerdestepSaudi Arabia
1.13Base xG ยท rolling 26-match1.30
no injury adjustment โ full squads available per FotMob
1.13Final ฮป โ what the Poisson uses1.30
Scoreline distribution ยท P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
12
7
3
1
1
10
13
8
4
1
2
6
7
5
2
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Under 10.5 Corners + X2 + Over 1.5 Goals + Under 7.5 SOT
Model 29.2% ยท @ 3.43x
Take this pick โ> More predictions for these teams
โก Full-time recap available
Cape Verde 0โ0 Saudi Arabia
See how the model called it ยท pick-by-pick verdict ยท xG vs actual โ
Statistical analysis for entertainment ยท Not betting advice ยท Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes ยท 18+