Bawler / Brazil vs Haiti / Recap
FT · World: World Cup · Saturday, 20 June 2026

Brazil 3–0 HaitiMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 20 June 2026

Brazil
3–0
Brazil win
Haiti
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Brazil at 40%, draw at 31%, Haiti at 29%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Brazil.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Brazil win
40%
Actual ✓
Draw
31%
Haiti win
29%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.49 – 1.23
Total 2.72
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.3 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 71%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
X2
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
BTTS No
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 2.5 Goals sits at 71% probability because Brazil's xG (1.49) and Haiti's (1.23) combine for a 2.72 total that strongly favors goal-heavy outcomes."

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