Match prediction·World: World Cup·Saturday 20 Jun, 00:30 UTC

Brazil vs Haiti

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Over 2.5 Goals sits at 71% probability because Brazil's xG (1.49) and Haiti's (1.23) combine for a 2.72 total that strongly favors goal-heavy outcomes.

📊 Win probability
40.1% home31.4% draw28.5% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
BrazilstepHaiti
1.49Base xG · rolling 26-match1.23
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.49Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.23

Brazil average 5.0 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). Haiti average 2.5 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
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5
6
0
7
8
5
2
1
1
10
12
7
3
1
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2
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1
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home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 2.5 goals
71%
Haiti or draw
52%
Not both teams to score
27%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Vinícius Jr
Brazil · Real Madrid
50%
To score
Raphinha
Brazil · Barcelona
43%
To score
Wilson Isidor
Haiti · Sunderland
36%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Brazil vs Haiti — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Brazil and Haiti — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Brazil 40% · draw 31% · Haiti 29%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Brazil 30 Haiti
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.