What we expect
In plain English
Bodo/Glimt are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. They have won four of their last six. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
Bodo/Glimt or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund?
Bawler's model rates this match: Bodo/Glimt are favoured (38% win probability vs 38% for Borussia Dortmund, 24% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Bodo/Glimt 1-1 Borussia Dortmund (10.6% probability). Expected total goals: 3.30.
How does Bawler predict Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Bodo/Glimt 38%, the draw 24% and Borussia Dortmund 38%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund?
BTTS: Yes (65% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.65 and away expected goals 1.65.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.30. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).