Bodo/Glimt go into this Champions League match as strong favourites on our numbers: 66% to win, against 16% for LASK Linz and 18% for a draw. Our predicted score is Bodo/Glimt 2–1 LASK Linz (9%), though no one exact score is likely on its own. We expect 3.9 goals in total: 2.7 for Bodo/Glimt and 1.3 for LASK Linz. Both sides are more likely than not to score (67%) and three or more goals is 75%.
In their last six games Bodo/Glimt have two wins, two draws and two defeats, while LASK Linz have three wins, no draws and three defeats. Bodo/Glimt drew their most recent match and LASK Linz won theirs.
We expect Bodo/Glimt to have 9.2 shots (3.3 on target) and LASK Linz 9.7 (4.4 on target), and corners at 3.6 to 2.1.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties.
The grey number is their average over the last six.
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Bodo/Glimt to win is 66% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Bawler's model rates this match: Bodo/Glimt are favoured (66% win probability vs 16% for LASK Linz, 18% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
Bawler's predicted score is Bodo/Glimt 2-1 LASK Linz: the most likely score if Bodo/Glimt win, which is the likeliest result (66%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.7%. Expected total goals: 3.9.
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Bodo/Glimt 66%, the draw 18% and LASK Linz 16%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 67% chance. That is based on Bodo/Glimt expecting 2.65 goals and LASK Linz 1.29.
Bawler's model expects 3.9 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 75%.
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.