> MATCH.PREDICT()ยทWorld: World CupยทWednesday 01 Jul, 20:00 UTC
Belgium vs Senegal
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain โ every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals sits at 74% because Belgium's 1.79 xG advantage and Lukaku's 22% team-shot creation outweigh Senegal's 1.06 xG, forcing high-volume attacking play from the home side.
Win probability
51.2% home28.6% draw20.2% away
xG chain โ base โ adjustments โ final ฮป
BelgiumstepSenegal
1.79Base xG ยท rolling 26-match1.06
no injury adjustment โ full squads available per FotMob
1.79Final ฮป โ what the Poisson uses1.06
Scoreline distribution ยท P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
6
3
1
1
10
11
6
2
1
2
9
10
5
2
3
6
6
3
1
4
2
3
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS ยท player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
Statistical analysis for entertainment ยท Not betting advice ยท Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes ยท 18+