Belgium vs Senegal
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Over 2.5 Goals sits at 74% because Belgium's 1.79 xG advantage and Lukaku's 22% team-shot creation outweigh Senegal's 1.06 xG, forcing high-volume attacking play from the home side.
Belgium average 4.3 corners per game this season (3 competitive matches).
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
Belgium vs Senegal — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Belgium and Senegal — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Belgium 51% · draw 29% · Senegal 20%.
Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.