Belgium 3–2 SenegalMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 01 July 2026

Belgium

3–2

Belgium win

Senegal

> Model verdict

✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Belgium at 51%, draw at 29%, Senegal at 20%. The match ended 3-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Belgium.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Belgium win

51%

Actual ✓

Draw

29%

Senegal win

20%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.79 – 1.06

Total 2.85

Actual

3 – 2

Total 5 (+2.1 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 2.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed

Banker

Over 2.5 Goals

Pre-match: 74%

✓ Won

Dark Horse

Under 2.5 Goals

Pre-match: 26%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Over 2.5 Goals sits at 74% because Belgium's 1.79 xG advantage and Lukaku's 22% team-shot creation outweigh Senegal's 1.06 xG, forcing high-volume attacking play from the home side."

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