Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Union Berlin prediction — Bundesliga · Sat 5 Sept · 14:30 UK

Bundesliga · Sat 5 Sept · 14:30 UK
Bayer Leverkusen 60Draw 221. FC Union Berlin 18
The call
60%
Bayer Leverkusen to win
3.1
Goals expected
13d 13hUntil lineups lock

Every market the model rates

Bayer Leverkusen or draw82%
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals59%
BTTS56%
Bayer Leverkusen win to nil31%
1. FC Union Berlin or draw40%
Under 3.5 goals63%
Correct score 2–110%

Model inputs

Home form (last 6)L W W L D W
Expected goals gap (xG)+1.0 / match
Head-to-head, last 5BAY 3 · D 1 · UNI 1

Head to head

Feb 2026Union Berlin 1–0 Bayer Leverkusen
Oct 2025Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 Union Berlin
Apr 2025Bayer Leverkusen 0–0 Union Berlin
Nov 2024Union Berlin 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen
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Common questions

Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Union Berlin?

Bawler's model rates this match: Bayer Leverkusen are favoured (60% win probability vs 18% for 1. FC Union Berlin, 22% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Union Berlin?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 1. FC Union Berlin (10.4% probability). Expected total goals: 3.07.

How does Bawler predict Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Union Berlin?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Bayer Leverkusen 60%, the draw 22% and 1. FC Union Berlin 18%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Union Berlin?

BTTS: Yes (56% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.04 and away expected goals 1.03.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Union Berlin?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.07. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

Bundesliga table →
Bayer Leverkusen
Before this
29 AugASV Elversberg14:30
1. FC Union Berlin
Before this
29 AugHEintracht Frankfurt14:30
All fixtures & results →Bayer Leverkusen form →1. FC Union Berlin form →