FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Bayer Leverkusen 4–0 1. FC Union BerlinMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 05 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Bayer Leverkusen at 61%, draw at 22%, 1. FC Union Berlin at 18%. The match ended 4-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Bayer Leverkusen.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Leverkusen win
61%
Actual ✓
Draw
22%
Berlin win
18%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.12 – 1.08
Total 3.20
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+0.8 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 61%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 40%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Leverkusen's 62% win forecast reflects their Champions League push at home against a mid-table opponent with nothing to chase, while Wirtz's creative dominance underpins a 1.12 xG advantage that should prove decisive."