FT · Europe: Conference League · Thursday, 22 October 2026
Pafos 1–1 Riga FCMatch recap · Thursday, 22 October 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Pafos win
66%
Draw
21%
Result
Riga FC win
13%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 0.8
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.