Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelFC Midtjylland on top: we expect them to avoid defeat and do most of the shooting.
Pafos v FC Midtjylland prediction
FC Midtjylland are favourites on our numbers: 46% to win, against 29% for Pafos and 24% for a draw. Our predicted score is Pafos 1–2 FC Midtjylland, the likeliest FC Midtjylland win score (9%). Our expected goals are 1.4 for Pafos and 1.8 for FC Midtjylland, 3.2 in all. Both sides are more likely than not to score (62%) and three or more goals is 61%.
In their last six games Pafos have one win, four draws and one defeat, while FC Midtjylland have three wins, one draw and two defeats. Pafos won their most recent match and FC Midtjylland drew theirs. Of the players, Rasmus Kristensen (FC Midtjylland) tops both our lists, with 0.8 shots and 0.2 on target expected if they start.
We expect Pafos to have 15.0 shots (5.6 on target) and FC Midtjylland 15.5 (5.4 on target), and corners at 5.8 to 4.4. Bawler's pick combines FC Midtjylland or Draw, FC Midtjylland Over 11.5 Shots, FC Midtjylland Over 2.5 Shots on Target and FC Midtjylland Over 1.5 Corners. We make the chance of all four coming in 47%, a fair price of 11/10 (2.12).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Pafos · last 6
FC Midtjylland · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
FC Midtjylland or draw is 71% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Common questions
Who will win Pafos vs FC Midtjylland?
Bawler's model rates this match: FC Midtjylland are favoured (46% win probability vs 29% for Pafos, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Pafos vs FC Midtjylland?
Bawler's predicted score is Pafos 1-2 FC Midtjylland: the most likely score if FC Midtjylland win, which is the likeliest result (46%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.1%. Expected total goals: 3.2.
How does Bawler predict Pafos vs FC Midtjylland?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Pafos 29%, the draw 24% and FC Midtjylland 46%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Pafos vs FC Midtjylland?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 62% chance. That is based on Pafos expecting 1.39 goals and FC Midtjylland 1.78.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Pafos vs FC Midtjylland?
Bawler's model expects 3.2 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 61%.
When are the Pafos v FC Midtjylland line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Pafos v FC Midtjylland?
FC Midtjylland or Draw (71%), FC Midtjylland Over 11.5 Shots (78%), FC Midtjylland Over 2.5 Shots on Target (88%), FC Midtjylland Over 1.5 Corners (88%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 47% chance, a fair price of 11/10 (2.12). 18+, please gamble responsibly.