England: Premier LeagueMonday 31 Aug, 19:00 UTC

Aston Villa vArsenal

Most likely scoreline
1–1
12% of the time · 2.66 goals expected
Aston Villa 36%Draw 32%Arsenal 32%
How we get there
Aston VillastepArsenal
1.39Base xG · rolling 26-match1.28
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.39Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.28

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

Aston Villa average 5.5 corners per game at home this season (26 competitive matches). Arsenal average 5.1 corners per game away from home this season (26 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
9
6
2
1
1
10
12
8
3
1
2
7
9
5
2
1
3
3
4
3
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

Team news — absences and latest club updates· as of 16 Aug 2026

Aston VillaHome
Unavailable / doubtful
  • Amadou Onana — Torn ACL in the right knee sustained on World Cup duty; underwent successful surgery. Reported as a 9-month layoff (one source says 9-12 months).
    Expected return: Around April 2027
  • Pau Torres — Reported to have picked up an injury in the first few days of pre-season. Teammate Emiliano Buendia publicly played down the concern. Severity unconfirmed.
    Expected return: Unverified
Latest updates
  • 13 Aug · Injury
    Manzambi misses Super Cup with knee injury, rehabbing in Spain
    Club-record summer signing Johan Manzambi was ruled out of the PSG final with the knee injury he picked up at the World Cup.
  • 13 Aug · Injury
    Garnacho left out of Super Cup squad after pre-season head injury
    Garnacho was omitted from the matchday squad in Salzburg. Reports attribute this to concussion protocols following the head/facial injury he suffered in the friendly against BG Pathum United…
ArsenalAway
Unavailable / doubtful
  • William Saliba — Back injury sustained on France duty at the 2026 World Cup (substituted in first half of the semi-final defeat to Spain).
    Expected return: No date given by club; widely reported to miss the opening weeks of the season, i.e. unavailable for GW1 on 21…
  • Jurrien Timber — Groin injury carried over from the end of 2025/26; missed the World Cup. Left the Spain pre-season camp to return to London, but sources stress this was a planned…
    Expected return: Targeting fitness for the start of the Premier League season; unconfirmed
Latest updates
  • 16 Aug · Manager
    Arteta relaxed over contract talks, says he and Arsenal board are aligned
    Speaking before the Community Shield, Arteta addressed entering the final year of his deal: "They don't have to worry about any of that, because I want to be here.
  • 16 Aug · Return
    Arteta confirms Saka, Rice and Zubimendi available for Community Shield
    Arteta said of the three World Cup returnees: "They will be available, they trained with us today, they will train tomorrow and if they are in the condition that we expect them to be, they…

Club news is gathered once a day from club statements and reporting, last on 16 Aug 2026. It is not a confirmed team sheet — squads are named about an hour before kick-off, after this page was built, so late fitness news may not appear above.

Predicted lineups — expected XI, not a confirmed team sheet

Aston VillaHome4-2-3-1
Goalkeeper
GKEmiliano Martinez
Defence
RBMatty CashCBEzri KonsaCBPau TorresLBIan Maatsen
Midfield
CMJoao GomesCMBoubacar KamaraRMJohn McGinnAMJohan ManzambiLMAlejandro Garnacho
Attack
STOllie Watkins
Selection doubts
  • Left-back: Ian Maatsen is the presumed starter following Lucas Digne's reported exit, but the Digne departure rests on a single source.
  • Attacking midfield: Johan Manzambi vs Emiliano Buendia for the Rogers role.
ArsenalAway4-3-3
Goalkeeper
GKDavid Raya
Defence
RBBen WhiteCBCristhian MosqueraCBGabriel MagalhaesLBRiccardo Calafiori
Midfield
CMDeclan RiceCMMartin ZubimendiCMMartin Odegaard
Attack
RWBukayo SakaSTViktor GyokeresLWGabriel Martinelli
Selection doubts
  • Centre-back alongside Gabriel: Cristhian Mosquera vs Piero Hincapie while William Saliba is out.
  • Right-back: Ben White vs Jurrien Timber, dependent on Timber's groin recovery.

Our projected starting elevens from squad news as of 30 July 2026 — not team sheets. Clubs confirm their starting elevens around an hour before kick-off, after this page was built.

Fantasy angle — top FPL picks in this fixture (2026/27 projections)

GabrielGabrielARS · DEF · £8.0m5.1 pts
WatkinsWatkinsAVL · FWD · £8.0m3.9 pts
RayaRayaARS · GKP · £6.0m3.8 pts
All projected points →

More predictions for these teams

Aston Villa fixtures & form →Arsenal fixtures & form →

Aston Villa vs Arsenal — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Aston Villa and Arsenal — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Aston Villa 36% · draw 32% · Arsenal 32%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Aston Villa predictions & form →Arsenal predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.