Arsenal vs Chelsea prediction — Premier League · Sun 6 Sept · 16:30 UK

Premier League · Sun 6 Sept · 16:30 UK
Arsenal 61Draw 23Chelsea 16
The call
61%
Arsenal to win
2.8
Goals expected
13d 21hUntil lineups lock

Every market the model rates

Arsenal or draw84%
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals53%
BTTS50%
Arsenal win to nil35%
Chelsea or draw39%
Under 3.5 goals69%
Correct score 1–012%

Model inputs

Home form (last 6)W W D L W W
Expected goals gap (xG)+1.0 / match
Head-to-head, last 5ARS 4 · D 1 · CHE 0

Head to head

Mar 2026Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea
Feb 2026Arsenal 1–0 Chelsea
Jan 2026Chelsea 2–3 Arsenal
Nov 2025Chelsea 1–1 Arsenal
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Common questions

Who will win Arsenal vs Chelsea?

Bawler's model rates this match: Arsenal are favoured (61% win probability vs 16% for Chelsea, 23% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Chelsea?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Arsenal 1-0 Chelsea (11.4% probability). Expected total goals: 2.81.

How does Bawler predict Arsenal vs Chelsea?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Arsenal 61%, the draw 23% and Chelsea 16%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Chelsea?

BTTS: Yes (50% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.92 and away expected goals 0.90.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Arsenal vs Chelsea?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.81. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

Premier League table →
All fixtures & results →Arsenal form →Chelsea form →