Match prediction·Portugal: Primeira Liga·Sunday 16 Aug, 17:00 UTC

Arouca vs Moreirense

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
45.9% home29.1% draw25.0% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
AroucastepMoreirense
1.61Base xG · rolling 26-match1.09
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.61Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.09

Arouca average 4.1 corners per game at home this season (17 competitive matches). Moreirense average 3.3 corners per game away from home this season (17 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
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0
7
7
4
1
1
11
12
6
2
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9
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5
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5
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2
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6
home windrawaway win

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

More predictions for these teams

Arouca vs Moreirense — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 21 March 2026, Arouca have won 1, Moreirense have won 0, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
21 March 2026Moreirense 01 AroucaPORTUGAL: Liga Portugal

The model's verdict for this fixture: Arouca 46% · draw 29% · Moreirense 25%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.