Bawler's model rates this match: Racing Genk are favoured (41% win probability vs 33% for Anderlecht, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Anderlecht 1-1 Racing Genk (11.5% probability). Expected total goals: 3.08.
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Anderlecht 33%, the draw 25% and Racing Genk 41%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
BTTS: Yes (62% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.45 and away expected goals 1.63.
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.08. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).