Who will win AFC Bournemouth vs Everton?

Bawler's model rates this match: AFC Bournemouth are favoured (55% win probability vs 17% for Everton, 28% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for AFC Bournemouth vs Everton?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is AFC Bournemouth 1-0 Everton (11.5% probability). Expected total goals: 2.76.

How does Bawler predict AFC Bournemouth vs Everton?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives AFC Bournemouth 55%, the draw 28% and Everton 17%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in AFC Bournemouth vs Everton?

BTTS: Yes (51% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.82 and away expected goals 0.94.

Over or under 2.5 goals in AFC Bournemouth vs Everton?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.76. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

England: Premier LeagueSaturday 29 Aug, 14:00 UTC

AFC Bournemouth vEverton

Most likely scoreline

1–0

12% of the time · 2.76 goals expected

AFC Bournemouth 55%Draw 28%Everton 17%

How we get there

AFC Bournemouthstep

Everton

1.82Base xG · rolling 26-match0.94

no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob

1.82Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.94

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

Bournemouth average 6.0 corners per game at home this season (19 competitive matches). Everton average 4.3 corners per game away from home this season (21 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate

home windrawaway win

Team news — absences and latest club updates· as of 16 Aug 2026

BournemouthHome

Unavailable / doubtful

Veljko Milosavljevic — Injury - left out of the travelling party for the Austria pre-season training camp and unavailable for the St Pauli friendly. Nature of the injury not disclosed.
Expected return: Unverified

Latest updates

1 Aug · Injury
Kroupi out three to four months after metatarsal surgery
Fifth metatarsal fracture requiring surgery, ruling him out until roughly November.

EvertonAway

Unavailable / doubtful

James Garner — Groin surgery during pre-season
Expected return: Back in first-team training around Premier League opening week; Goodison News (25 Jul) says he is 'almost…
Jarrad Branthwaite — Hamstring (curtailed 2025/26); returned ahead of schedule
Expected return: Already back — played 45 minutes v Bolton 25 Jul, rested v Stoke as a precaution.
Tyler Dibling — Minor knock
Expected return: Missed Bolton, expected back v Stoke. Not a long-term concern.
Hayden Hackney — Knock carried over from end of 2025/26
Expected return: Missed Dundee and Bolton; started/expected debut v Stoke 28 Jul. Effectively available.

Latest updates

16 Aug · Return
Branthwaite starts v Lille, completing his return from hamstring surgery
Jarrad Branthwaite started alongside Tarkowski in the final pre-season fixture on 15 August and made a key clearance from a dangerous Lille delivery.
16 Aug · Line-up
Everton end pre-season with 1-1 draw v Lille; Ndiaye penalty, late equaliser
Everton lined up Pickford; Röhl, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Mykolenko; Hackney, Armstrong, Dewsbury-Hall; Dibling, Ndiaye, Barry.

Club news is gathered once a day from club statements and reporting, last on 16 Aug 2026. It is not a confirmed team sheet — squads are named about an hour before kick-off, after this page was built, so late fitness news may not appear above.

Predicted lineups — expected XI, not a confirmed team sheet

BournemouthHome4-2-3-1 · shape not settled
Goalkeeper
GKDjordje Petrovic
Defence
RBAdam SmithCBBafode DiakiteCBJames HillLBAdrien Truffert
Midfield
CMTyler AdamsCMAlex ScottAMJustin Kluivert
Attack
RWRayanLWBen Gannon-DoakSTEvanilson
Selection doubts
·This XI is a low-confidence projection.
·Centre-forward: Evanilson vs Alvaro Rodriguez vs Eli Junior Kroupi vs Enes Unal vs Daniel Jebbison.

EvertonAway4-2-3-1 · shape not settled
Goalkeeper
GKJordan Pickford
Defence
RBJake O'Brien (a centre-back filling in; club actively seeking a specialist RB)CBJames Tarkowski (c)CBJarrad BranthwaiteLBVitalii Mykolenko
Midfield
CMTim IroegbunamCMHayden Hackney / Merlin RöhlAMKiernan Dewsbury-Hall
Attack
RWTyler DiblingLWIliman Ndiaye (subject to Al-Hilal interest)STThierno Barry / Beto
Selection doubts
·STRIKER — Thierno Barry vs Beto, genuinely wide open.
·RIGHT-BACK — Everton's biggest hole.

Our projected starting elevens from squad news as of 30 July 2026 — not team sheets. Clubs confirm their starting elevens around an hour before kick-off, after this page was built.

Fantasy angle — top FPL picks in this fixture (2026/27 projections)

TarkowskiEVE · DEF · £6.0m3.6 pts

Dewsbury-HallEVE · MID · £6.5m3.3 pts

TruffertBOU · DEF · £5.5m3.1 pts

All projected points →

More predictions for these teams

AFC Bournemouth fixtures & form →

Everton fixtures & form →

Bournemouth vs Everton — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Bournemouth and Everton — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Bournemouth 55% · draw 28% · Everton 17%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Bournemouth predictions & form →Everton predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →

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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.