FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Tottenham Hotspur 0–0 EvertonMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Tottenham Hotspur at 40%, draw at 27%, Everton at 33%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Tottenham Hotspur to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Hotspur win
40%
Draw
27%
Actual ✓
Everton win
33%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.42 – 1.27
Total 2.69
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 50%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 75%, driven by Tottenham's 1.42 xG and Everton's 1.28 xG creating a combined 2.70 expected output that heavily favors multiple goals."