FT · ENGLAND: EFL Cup · Wednesday, 26 August 2026
Preston North End 0–4 EvertonMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 26 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Preston North End at 15%, draw at 21%, Everton at 63%. The match ended 0-4 — confirming the model's lean toward Everton.
> Pre-match probability vs result
End win
15%
Draw
21%
Everton win
63%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.94 – 2.09
Total 3.03
Actual
0 – 4
Total 4 (+1.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Away Win
Pre-match: 63%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 36%
✓ Won