FT · ENGLAND: Premier League · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Everton 2–0 Crystal PalaceMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 22 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Everton at 36%, draw at 27%, Crystal Palace at 37%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-0. The model's headline call was Crystal Palace to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Everton win
36%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
Palace win
37%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.34 – 1.36
Total 2.70
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-0.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost