FT · ENGLAND: Premier League · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Everton 2–0 Crystal PalaceMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Crystal Palace or draw at 64%. Bawler had Everton at 36%, the draw at 27% and Crystal Palace at 37%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Everton win
36%
Result
Draw
27%
Crystal Palace win
37%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.4
Total 2.7
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 2.0
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.