Bawler / France: Ligue 1 / PSG
Team profile

PSG Prediction

Per-game numbers from 52 competitive matches · updated 17 August 2026

Shots
17.9
a game
9.5 faced
On target
6.8
a game
3.5 faced
Goals
2.3 – 1.0
scored – conceded
a game, 52 matches
Next match
29%
PSG win chance
at Lille · Fri 28 Aug 18:45

PSG prediction: for PSG's next match — Lille vs PSG on Friday 28 Aug, 18:45 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Lille are favoured (41%).

PSG carry a strong attacking profile, creating 1.98 expected goals per game against a Ligue 1 average of 1.51. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 1.63 goals a game against 1.98 expected. Next up is a trip to Lille, where the model has them as underdogs at 29%.

PSG in numbers

52 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
2.3
Goals · per game
let in 1.0
Home 2.6Away 2.0
6.0
Corners · per game
give up 3.2
Home 6.4Away 5.6
17.9
Shots · per game
faced 9.5
Home 19.3Away 16.4
6.8
On target · per game
faced 3.5
Home 7.1Away 6.5
Last 6 games
12 Aug
2-1
vs Aston Villa
0-2
30 May
1-1
vs Arsenal
-
17 May
1-2
@ Paris
3-3
13 May
2-0
@ Lens
3-6
10 May
1-0
vs Brest
13-2
06 May
1-1
@ Bayern Munich
8-1

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Lille · Friday 28 Aug, 18:45 UTC

Win
29%
PSG
Draw
30%
Loss
41%
Lille
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How PSG compare with the France: Ligue 1 average, per match.

Goals for
1.98
Above average
Goals against
1.25
Tighter than most
Record
5W 2D 1L
8 settled
Real goals
1.6 – 0.8
For / against, per match
Scored1.98
Conceded1.25

The grey line on each bar is the France: Ligue 1 average (1.51 scored, 1.44 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.98 xG per match · +0.47 above the France: Ligue 1 average of 1.51.
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.25 xG per match · -0.20 vs league average of 1.44.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 75% of the time on PSG fixtures (3/4).

How Bawler has done on PSG

75%
of high-confidence calls correct — 6 of 8, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)75%3/4
Result75%3/4

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 8)

Sat 30 Mayvs Arsenal
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 May@ Paris FC
High confidence: X2
Wed 13 May@ Lens
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 10 Mayvs Brest
High confidence: 1X
Sat 02 Mayvs Lorient
High confidence: 1X
Wed 08 Aprvs Liverpool
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Fri 03 Aprvs Toulouse
High confidence: 1X
Sat 21 Mar@ Nice
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INFerran TorresSTfrom Barcelona€50m
INMika GodtsLWfrom Ajax€45m
INMaghnes AklioucheRWfrom MonacoUndisclosed
INLucas DigneLBfrom Aston Villa€7m
OUTGonçalo RamosSTto Milan€74m
OUTRandal Kolo MuaniSTto Juventus€41m
OUTKang-In LeeCMto Atletico Madrid€40m
OUTGabriel MoscardoCBto EspanyolLoan
OUTNoham KamaraCBto Lyon€4.1m
OUTYounes El HannachRBto MontpellierLoan
OUTKhalil AyariRMto DunkerqueLoan
OUTNoah NsokiRWto Dinamo ZagrebUndisclosed

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on PSG and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly