How it finished
Lille and Paris Saint-Germain drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Paris Saint-Germain at 44% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 26%. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 4. Lille had 9 shots (4 on target) to Paris Saint-Germain's 18 (4), with 27% of the ball against 73%. Expected goals finished 1.1 to 1.3.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one first-half goal: 67%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Lille vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Lille and Paris Saint-Germain drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Paris Saint-Germain at 44% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 26%. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 4. Lille had 9 shots (4 on target) to Paris Saint-Germain's 18 (4), with 27% of the ball against 73%. Expected goals finished 1.1 to 1.3.
What was the final score in Lille vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Lille 2–2 Paris Saint-Germain, played on 28 Aug 2026 in the FRANCE: Ligue 1. Bawler's model had gone into it with Lille 29%, the draw 26% and Paris Saint-Germain 44%.
What were the stats in Lille vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Full-time: Possession 27%–73%, Expected goals (xG) 1.1–1.3, Shots 9–18, Shots on target 4–4, Shots inside box 5–7, Big chances 2–4, Corners 0–5, Saves 2–2, Fouls 11–7, Offsides 5–0, Yellow cards 2–1.
Did both teams score in Lille vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Yes — both Lille and Paris Saint-Germain scored, finishing 2–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Lille vs Paris Saint-Germain right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Result — we said Paris Saint-Germain 44%, it finished Draw (26% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 56%, it finished Yes; Model call — we said Over 1.5 Goals 77%, it finished Landed; Second call — we said Over 2.5 Goals 53%, it finished Landed.