France: Ligue 1Friday 28 Aug, 18:45 UTC

Lille vParis Saint-Germain

Most likely scoreline
1–1
11% of the time · 2.90 goals expected
Lille 41%Draw 30%Paris Saint-Germain 29%
How we get there
LillestepParis Saint-Germain
1.59Base xG · rolling 26-match1.31
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.59Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.31

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

Lille average 6.7 corners per game at home this season (23 competitive matches). PSG average 5.6 corners per game away from home this season (25 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
7
5
2
1
1
9
11
8
3
1
2
7
9
6
3
1
3
4
5
3
1
4
1
2
1
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Lille fixtures & form →Paris Saint-Germain fixtures & form →

Lille vs PSG — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Lille and PSG — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Lille 41% · draw 30% · PSG 29%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Lille predictions & form →PSG predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.