Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelAZ Alkmaar on top, and Mexx Meerdink getting plenty of shots away.
Sparta Rotterdam v AZ Alkmaar prediction
Our model gives Sparta Rotterdam 25%, the draw 23% and AZ Alkmaar 52%, so AZ Alkmaar start as favourites. Our predicted score is Sparta Rotterdam 1–2 AZ Alkmaar, the likeliest AZ Alkmaar win score (9%). Our expected goals are 1.4 for Sparta Rotterdam and 2.0 for AZ Alkmaar, 3.4 in all. Both teams scoring is 64% and three or more goals is 65%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Sparta Rotterdam have won one, AZ Alkmaar three, and one was drawn. When they last met, it finished AZ Alkmaar 3–1 Sparta Rotterdam, in Feb 2026. For cards, Isaac Babadi (Sparta Rotterdam) has been booked once every 3 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here.
On shots, our forecast is 12.5 for Sparta Rotterdam and 20.4 for AZ Alkmaar, with 4.2 and 6.3 on target, and corners at 4.0 to 7.4. So we expect AZ Alkmaar to do more of the shooting. In their last six games Sparta Rotterdam have two wins, two draws and two defeats, while AZ Alkmaar have two wins, one draw and three defeats. Sparta Rotterdam won their most recent match and AZ Alkmaar lost theirs. Bawler's pick for this game is AZ Alkmaar or Draw, AZ Alkmaar Over 15.5 Shots and Mexx Meerdink 2+ Shots. Our model gives all three landing together a 52% chance, which makes the fair price 10/11 (1.91).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Sparta Rotterdam · last 6
AZ Alkmaar · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
AZ Alkmaar or draw is 75% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Eredivisie table →Common questions
Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Bawler's model rates this match: AZ Alkmaar are favoured (52% win probability vs 25% for Sparta Rotterdam, 23% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Bawler's predicted score is Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 AZ Alkmaar: the most likely score if AZ Alkmaar win, which is the likeliest result (52%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.3%. Expected total goals: 3.4.
How does Bawler predict Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Sparta Rotterdam 25%, the draw 23% and AZ Alkmaar 52%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 64% chance. That is based on Sparta Rotterdam expecting 1.36 goals and AZ Alkmaar 2.00.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Bawler's model expects 3.4 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 65%.
When are the Sparta Rotterdam v AZ Alkmaar line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Sparta Rotterdam v AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar or Draw (75%), AZ Alkmaar Over 15.5 Shots (80%), Mexx Meerdink 2+ Shots (80%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 52% chance, a fair price of 10/11 (1.91). 18+, please gamble responsibly.