Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelAZ Alkmaar on top, and Mexx Meerdink getting plenty of shots away.
Sparta Prague v AZ Alkmaar prediction
Our model makes AZ Alkmaar favourites for this Europa League game, giving them a 49% chance of winning. Sparta Prague are 27% and the draw is 25%. Our predicted score is Sparta Prague 1–2 AZ Alkmaar, the likeliest AZ Alkmaar win score (9%). Our expected goals are 1.3 for Sparta Prague and 1.8 for AZ Alkmaar, 3.1 in all. Both teams scoring is 60% and three or more goals is 59%.
Of their last two meetings on our records, Sparta Prague have won none, AZ Alkmaar two. When they last met, it finished Sparta Prague 0–4 AZ Alkmaar, in Mar 2026. Mexx Meerdink is the player we expect to shoot most: 2.5 shots and 1.1 on target for AZ Alkmaar, if they start. For cards, Weslley Pinto (AZ Alkmaar) has been booked once every 3 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here.
In their last six games Sparta Prague have one win, two draws and three defeats, while AZ Alkmaar have two wins, one draw and three defeats. Sparta Prague drew their most recent match and AZ Alkmaar won theirs. On shots, our forecast is 15.7 for Sparta Prague and 14.2 for AZ Alkmaar, with 5.8 and 4.8 on target, and corners at 5.8 to 5.4. For Bawler's pick we have gone with AZ Alkmaar or Draw, AZ Alkmaar Over 10.5 Shots and Mexx Meerdink 2+ Shots. The chance all three land is 42% on our numbers, so the fair price is 11/8, or 2.38.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Sparta Prague · last 6
AZ Alkmaar · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
AZ Alkmaar or draw is 73% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Eredivisie table →Common questions
Who will win Sparta Prague vs AZ Alkmaar?
Bawler's model rates this match: AZ Alkmaar are favoured (49% win probability vs 27% for Sparta Prague, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Sparta Prague vs AZ Alkmaar?
Bawler's predicted score is Sparta Prague 1-2 AZ Alkmaar: the most likely score if AZ Alkmaar win, which is the likeliest result (49%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.4%. Expected total goals: 3.1.
How does Bawler predict Sparta Prague vs AZ Alkmaar?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Sparta Prague 27%, the draw 25% and AZ Alkmaar 49%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Sparta Prague vs AZ Alkmaar?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 60% chance. That is based on Sparta Prague expecting 1.27 goals and AZ Alkmaar 1.78.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Sparta Prague vs AZ Alkmaar?
Bawler's model expects 3.1 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 59%.
When are the Sparta Prague v AZ Alkmaar line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Sparta Prague v AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar or Draw (73%), AZ Alkmaar Over 10.5 Shots (78%), Mexx Meerdink 2+ Shots (68%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 42% chance, a fair price of 11/8 (2.38). 18+, please gamble responsibly.