Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig prediction — Bundesliga · Sat 5 Sept · 14:30 UK

Bundesliga · Sat 5 Sept · 14:30 UK
Werder Bremen 30Draw 25RB Leipzig 45
The call
45%
RB Leipzig to win
3.0
Goals expected
13d 13hUntil lineups lock

Every market the model rates

Werder Bremen or draw55%
Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals57%
BTTS59%
Werder Bremen win to nil14%
RB Leipzig or draw70%
Under 3.5 goals65%
Correct score 1–111%

Model inputs

Home form (last 6)W D L L L W
Expected goals gap (xG)-0.3 / match
Head-to-head, last 5WER 0 · D 2 · RBR 3

Head to head

Apr 2026Werder Bremen 1–2 RB Leipzig
Nov 2025RB Leipzig 2–0 Werder Bremen
May 2025Werder Bremen 0–0 RB Leipzig
Jan 2025RB Leipzig 4–2 Werder Bremen
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Common questions

Who will win Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig?

Bawler's model rates this match: RB Leipzig are favoured (45% win probability vs 30% for Werder Bremen, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Werder Bremen 1-1 RB Leipzig (11.8% probability). Expected total goals: 2.99.

How does Bawler predict Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Werder Bremen 30%, the draw 25% and RB Leipzig 45%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig?

BTTS: Yes (59% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.32 and away expected goals 1.67.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.99. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

Bundesliga table →
Werder Bremen
Before this
30 AugASC Freiburg14:30
All fixtures & results →Werder Bremen form →RB Leipzig form →