FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 29 August 2026
RB Leipzig 3–0 Borussia MönchengladbachMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was RB Leipzig to win at 60%. Bawler had RB Leipzig at 60%, the draw at 22% and Borussia Mönchengladbach at 18%. The match finished 3–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
RB Leipzig win
60%
Result
Draw
22%
Borussia Mönchengladbach win
18%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 1.1
Total 3.2
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (−0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.9 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 3.2.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
RB Leipzig to win
Pre-match: 60%
Landed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 38%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Leipzig's Champions League spot demands precision while Gladbach plays for pride, and the 1.11 expected-goal gap tilts sharply toward a home win at 62%."