> MATCH.PREDICT()Β·World: World CupΒ·Thursday 02 Jul, 00:00 UTC
United States vs Bosnia-Herzegovina
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain β every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 76% because the US's 0.81 xG edge and 53% win probability creates a high-variance, attacking script where Bosnia's creator PjaniΔ will need chances to stay in it.
Win probability
53.2% home29.2% draw17.6% away
xG chain β base β adjustments β final Ξ»
United StatesstepBosnia-Herzegovina
1.57Base xG Β· rolling 26-match0.97
Γ 1.10Home advantage Β· Host nationΓ 0.95
no injury adjustment β full squads available per FotMob
1.73Final Ξ» β what the Poisson uses0.92
Scoreline distribution Β· P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
6
3
1
1
12
11
5
2
2
11
10
4
1
3
6
6
3
1
4
3
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Christian Pulisic 1+ Shot on Target + Over 1.5 Goals + Under 10.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT
Model 28.7% Β· @ 3.49x
Take this pick β> More predictions for these teams
Statistical analysis for entertainment Β· Not betting advice Β· Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes Β· 18+