Match prediction·World: World Cup·Thursday 02 Jul, 00:00 UTC

United States vs Bosnia-Herzegovina

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 76% because the US's 0.81 xG edge and 53% win probability creates a high-variance, attacking script where Bosnia's creator Pjanić will need chances to stay in it.

📊 Win probability
53.2% home29.2% draw17.6% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
United StatesstepBosnia-Herzegovina
1.57Base xG · rolling 26-match0.97
× 1.10Home advantage · Host nation× 0.95
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.73Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.92
🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
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6
0
7
6
3
1
1
12
11
5
2
2
11
10
4
1
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6
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3
1
4
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1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
76%
Over 3.5 goals
24%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

United States vs Bosnia-Herzegovina — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between United States and Bosnia-Herzegovina — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: United States 53% · draw 29% · Bosnia-Herzegovina 18%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
United States 20 Bosnia-Herzegovina
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.