United States vs Bosnia-Herzegovina
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 76% because the US's 0.81 xG edge and 53% win probability creates a high-variance, attacking script where Bosnia's creator Pjanić will need chances to stay in it.
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
More predictions for these teams
United States vs Bosnia-Herzegovina — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between United States and Bosnia-Herzegovina — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: United States 53% · draw 29% · Bosnia-Herzegovina 18%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.