United States 2–0 Bosnia-HerzegovinaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 02 July 2026

United States

2–0

United States win

Bosnia-Herzegovina

> Model verdict

✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had United States at 53%, draw at 29%, Bosnia-Herzegovina at 18%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward United States.

> Pre-match probability vs result

States win

53%

Actual ✓

Draw

29%

Bosnia-Herzegovina win

18%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.73 – 0.92

Total 2.65

Actual

2 – 0

Total 2 (-0.7 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed

Banker

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 76%

✓ Won

Dark Horse

Over 3.5 Goals

Pre-match: 24%

✗ Lost

Bawl OutMixed@ 3.49x

Christian Pulisic 1+ Shot on Target–
Over 1.5 Goals✓
Under 10.5 Corners–
Over 7.5 SOT–

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 76% because the US's 0.81 xG edge and 53% win probability creates a high-variance, attacking script where Bosnia's creator Pjanić will need chances to stay in it."

> More from Bawler