Udinese vs Lazio prediction — Serie A · Mon 7 Sept · 19:45 UK

Serie A · Mon 7 Sept · 19:45 UK
Udinese 37Draw 29Lazio 34
Our call before kickoff
66%
Udinese or draw
Missed
2.5
Goals expected
Full time
Final 1–2
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
61%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
51%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
46%

How it finished

Lazio beat Udinese 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Udinese at 37% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Lazio 34%. It forecast 2.5 goals and the match produced 3. Udinese had 10 shots (6 on target) to Lazio's 19 (7), with 40% of the ball against 60%. Expected goals finished 0.8 to 1.9.

UdineseFull-time statsLazio
40%Possession60%
0.8Expected goals (xG)1.9
10Shots19
6Shots on target7
6Shots inside box10
2Big chances2
2Corners8
5Saves5
13Fouls9
1Offsides1
5Yellow cards1
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callUdinese or draw 66%Lazio won (34% called)
Total goals2.53
Both teams to score51%Yes
Graded pickOver 1.5 goals 72%Landed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

UdineseLazio
1.3
Goals+0.1
1.2
14.8
Shots+2.7
12.0
4.1
On target+0.4
3.7
4.9
Corners+0.8
4.1
UdineseLazio
0.5
Goals+0.2
0.3
6.9
Shots+1.4
5.5
1.9
On target+0.3
1.7
2.3
Corners+0.4
1.9
UdineseLazio
0.8
Goals+0.1
0.9
7.9
Shots+1.3
6.5
2.2
On target+0.1
2.0
2.6
Corners+0.4
2.2

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Under 3.5 goals75%
Udinese to score73%
Over 1.5 goals72%
Lazio to score71%

First half — what we expected

Udinese
46%
to score before half-time
Lazio
28%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 61%

UdineseLazio
6.91st-half shots5.5
1.91st-half shots on target1.7
2.31st-half corners1.9

First-half chances

63%Chance of 6+ shots45%
39%Chance of 8+ shots23%
82%Chance of 1+ shots on target77%
31%Chance of 3+ shots on target24%
85%Chance of 1+ corners80%
39%Chance of 3+ corners30%

How the match splits

1st half2nd half
Shots · Udinese6.97.9
Shots · Lazio5.56.5
Shots on target · Udinese1.92.2
Shots on target · Lazio1.72.0
Corners · Udinese2.32.6
Corners · Lazio1.92.2
How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+0.1 / match
Head-to-head, last 5Udinese 2 · Draws 3 · Lazio 0
Lazio in their league tableTop quarter

Head to head

Apr 2026Lazio 3–3 Udinese
Dec 2025Udinese 1–1 Lazio
Mar 2025Lazio 1–1 Udinese
Aug 2024Udinese 2–1 Lazio
Mar 2024Lazio 1–2 Udinese
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Udinese vs Lazio?

Lazio beat Udinese 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Udinese at 37% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Lazio 34%. It forecast 2.5 goals and the match produced 3. Udinese had 10 shots (6 on target) to Lazio's 19 (7), with 40% of the ball against 60%. Expected goals finished 0.8 to 1.9.

What was the final score in Udinese vs Lazio?

Udinese 1–2 Lazio, played on 07 Sept 2026 in the Italy: Serie A. Bawler's model had gone into it with Udinese 37%, the draw 29% and Lazio 34%.

What were the stats in Udinese vs Lazio?

Full-time: Possession 40%–60%, Expected goals (xG) 0.8–1.9, Shots 10–19, Shots on target 6–7, Shots inside box 6–10, Big chances 2–2, Corners 2–8, Saves 5–5, Fouls 13–9, Offsides 1–1, Yellow cards 5–1.

Did both teams score in Udinese vs Lazio?

Yes — both Udinese and Lazio scored, finishing 1–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 51% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Udinese vs Lazio right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Udinese or draw 66%, it finished Lazio won (34% called); Total goals — we said 2.5, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 51%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 72%, it finished Landed.

Around this fixture

Serie A table →
All fixtures & results →Udinese form →Lazio form →