FT · ITALY: Serie A · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Lazio 1–0 GenoaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 30 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Lazio at 43%, draw at 28%, Genoa at 29%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Lazio.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Lazio win
43%
Actual ✓
Draw
28%
Genoa win
29%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.40 – 1.11
Total 2.51
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.5 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.5 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 71%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost