FT · ITALY: Serie A · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Udinese 1–1 ComoMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Como or draw at 78%. Bawler had Udinese at 22%, the draw at 27% and Como at 51%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Udinese win
22%
Draw
27%
Result
Como win
51%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
0.9 – 1.6
Total 2.5
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.0 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 2.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Como or draw
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.