Türkiye 3–2 United StatesMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 26 June 2026

3–2

Türkiye win

> Model verdict

✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Türkiye at 36%, draw at 31%, United States at 33%. The match ended 3-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Türkiye.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Türkiye win

36%

Actual ✓

Draw

31%

States win

33%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.44 – 1.39

Total 2.82

Actual

3 – 2

Total 5 (+2.2 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 2.2 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed

Banker

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 80%

✓ Won

Dark Horse

Over 3.5 Goals

Pre-match: 27%

✓ Won

Bawl OutMixed@ 4.72x

Christian Pulisic 1+ Shot on Target–
Over 2.5 Goals✓
Over 8.5 Corners–
1X✓

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 80% because combined xG of 2.82 and a razor-thin win-probability spread (Türkiye 36%, USMNT 33%) point to an open, goal-heavy encounter."

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