Bawler / Tunisia vs Japan / Recap
FT · World: World Cup · Sunday, 21 June 2026

Tunisia 0–4 JapanMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 21 June 2026

Tunisia
0–4
Japan win
Japan
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Tunisia at 30%, draw at 32%, Japan at 38%. The match ended 0-4 — confirming the model's lean toward Japan.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Tunisia win
30%
Draw
32%
Japan win
38%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.26 – 1.44
Total 2.70
Actual
0 – 4
Total 4 (+1.3 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 1.3 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
X2
Pre-match: 65%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 23%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals at 73% sits on combined xG of 2.70, with Japan's creative edge (Minamino accounting for 22% of team chances) enough to break Tunisia's mid-table resistance."

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