Tunisia vs Japan
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Over 1.5 Goals at 73% sits on combined xG of 2.70, with Japan's creative edge (Minamino accounting for 22% of team chances) enough to break Tunisia's mid-table resistance.
Tunisia average 3.5 corners per game at home this season (2 competitive matches). Japan average 3.5 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
More predictions for these teams
Tunisia vs Japan — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Tunisia and Japan — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Tunisia 30% · draw 32% · Japan 38%.
Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.