Bawler's model rates this match: Borussia Dortmund are favoured (38% win probability vs 36% for TSG Hoffenheim, 26% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is TSG Hoffenheim 1-1 Borussia Dortmund (12.0% probability). Expected total goals: 2.97.
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives TSG Hoffenheim 36%, the draw 26% and Borussia Dortmund 38%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
BTTS: Yes (60% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.46 and away expected goals 1.51.
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.97. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).