FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Borussia Dortmund 2–0 Hamburg SVMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Borussia Dortmund to win at 65%. Bawler had Borussia Dortmund at 65%, the draw at 20% and Hamburg SV at 15%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Borussia Dortmund win
65%
Result
Draw
20%
Hamburg SV win
15%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.3 – 1.0
Total 3.3
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Borussia Dortmund to win
Pre-match: 65%
Landed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Dortmund's 1.36 expected-goals advantage and Guirassy's 30% of team creation in a title-race home fixture make a convincing case for a Home Win at 67%."