Tottenham Hotspur vNewcastle United
Early projection
These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.
Tottenham average 6.0 corners per game at home this season (24 competitive matches). Newcastle average 5.1 corners per game away from home this season (25 competitive matches).
Team news — absences and latest club updates· as of 16 Aug 2026
- Xavi Simons — Ruptured anterior cruciate ligament, right knee, sustained 25 April 2026 v Wolves; surgery early May. Ruled out at least seven monthsExpected return: reports differ — 'at least seven months' implies approximately December 2026; Transfermarkt lists 20 February…
- Wilson Odobert — Cruciate ligament tearExpected return: 28 November 2026 (Transfermarkt)
- Dejan Kulusevski — Knee cartilage; out 13+ months and missed the ENTIRE 2025/26 season. Sweden's team doctor said the injury is 'in a tricky spot' and 'is not recovering quickly enough due…Expected return: No timeline given
- Mohammed Kudus — Quadriceps/thigh tendon injury sustained January 2026 and aggravated in April (one source describes it as a hamstring); missed the second half of 2025/26Expected return: Imminent - De Zerbi, 26 July 2026: 'Kudus is very close, I think.
- Cristian Romero — Muscular leg problem sustained for Argentina in the 2026 World Cup final v Spain on 19 July, forced off before the second hydration break.Expected return: No timeline given
- 16 Aug · DepartureCristian Romero move to Atletico Madrid completed and unveiledThe Tottenham captain's £34.2m switch was finalised on 15 Aug, with Romero signing a contract until 30 June 2031 and being unveiled by Atletico.
- 16 Aug · DepartureDjed Spence completes £30m move to Inter Milan on five-year dealThe move announced as agreed earlier in the week was formally completed on 15 Aug, with Spence signing a five-year contract at Inter after passing his medical on the Friday.
- Tino Livramento — Calf injury sustained training with England before the 2026 World Cup; has since had surgery. Described by Howe as the longest-term absentee of the groupExpected return: Around the start of the season (Howe, late July 2026) - genuine doubt for GW1 v Liverpool on 23 August
- Joelinton — Thigh injury that ended his 2025/26 season; running and rebuilding fitness, missed the opening pre-season matchesExpected return: Around the start of the season
- Lewis Miley — Long-standing injury; 'really good progress'Expected return: Expected to rejoin training at the La Manga camp (early August 2026)
- William Osula — Tight groin - missed the Gateshead friendlyExpected return: 'Fine in a week or so' (Howe, c. 26 July 2026); expected to travel to Spain
- Fabian Schar — Returned in pre-season after seven months out, then went off early in the Bristol City friendly on 29 July 2026 with a suspected groin/tightness problem.
- 13 Aug · DepartureAlex Murphy joins FC Kaiserslautern on season-long loanNewcastle officially confirmed the 22-year-old defender has joined 2. Bundesliga side 1. FC Kaiserslautern on loan for the whole of 2026/27.
- 13 Aug · ReturnElanga and Lewis Hall both start v Everton after fitness scaresNewcastle's official team news confirmed Elanga was "stretchered off in Spain, but is fit enough to start here" — four days after a heavy Jose Gaya challenge at Valencia left him needing a…
Club news is gathered once a day from club statements and reporting, last on 16 Aug 2026. It is not a confirmed team sheet — squads are named about an hour before kick-off, after this page was built, so late fitness news may not appear above.
Predicted lineups — expected XI, not a confirmed team sheet
- GOALKEEPER (the most live battle in the squad): Antonin Kinsky started the survival-clinching final day of 2025/26, signed a new deal to 2032 on 30 June, and Tribal Football, Italpress and Football…
- CENTRE-BACK: Jan Paul van Hecke (£52m) and Micky van de Ven are the likeliest pair, but Marcos Senesi (free) is on extended post-World Cup leave, captain Cristian Romero picked up a muscular injury…
- GOALKEEPER: Nick Pope vs GBP 18.5m signing Ewen Jaouen - and now Braga's Lukas Hornicek, whose EUR 30m release clause Newcastle have reportedly agreed to meet (TEAMtalk/Football365, 30 July; agreed…
- STRIKER: three-way between Nick Woltemade (GBP 64.9m club-record signing from Stuttgart in Aug 2025, contracted to 2031), Yoane Wissa and William Osula.
Our projected starting elevens from squad news as of 30 July 2026 — not team sheets. Clubs confirm their starting elevens around an hour before kick-off, after this page was built.
Fantasy angle — top FPL picks in this fixture (2026/27 projections)
ThiawNEW · DEF · £5.0m3.6 pts
Van HeckeTOT · DEF · £5.0m3.4 pts
BarnesNEW · MID · £6.0m2.9 ptsMore predictions for these teams
Tottenham vs Newcastle — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Tottenham and Newcastle — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Tottenham 43% · draw 31% · Newcastle 25%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.