Bawler's model rates this match: Telstar are favoured (66% win probability vs 15% for SC Cambuur, 19% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Telstar 2-1 SC Cambuur (9.3% probability). Expected total goals: 3.62.
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Telstar 66%, the draw 19% and SC Cambuur 15%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
BTTS: Yes (62% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.48 and away expected goals 1.13.
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.62. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).