Bawler / Switzerland vs Canada / Recap
FT · World: World Cup · Wednesday, 24 June 2026

Switzerland 2–1 CanadaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 24 June 2026

Switzerland
2–1
Switzerland win
Canada
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Switzerland at 49%, draw at 29%, Canada at 22%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Switzerland.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Switzerland win
49%
Actual ✓
Draw
29%
Canada win
22%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.72 – 1.11
Total 2.83
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Away Win
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 3.99x
  • Breel Embolo 1+ Shot on Target✓
  • Over 2.5 Goals✓
  • Over 8.5 Corners✓
  • Over 8.5 SOT✓
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 81% because Switzerland's 1.72 xG and Canada's 1.11 xG combine for a 2.83 total that favors a multi-goal affair despite Canada's creator Alphonso Davies threading dangerous chances."

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