> MATCH.PREDICT()ยทWorld: World CupยทFriday 03 Jul, 03:00 UTC
Switzerland vs Algeria
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain โ every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals lands at 71% because Switzerland's 1.50 xG and Algeria's 1.12 combine for 2.62 total, with Xhaka and Mahrez driving attacking thrust from open play.
Win probability
42.5% home31.7% draw25.7% away
xG chain โ base โ adjustments โ final ฮป
SwitzerlandstepAlgeria
1.50Base xG ยท rolling 26-match1.12
no injury adjustment โ full squads available per FotMob
1.50Final ฮป โ what the Poisson uses1.12
Scoreline distribution ยท P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
8
5
2
1
11
12
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
1
3
4
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Under 10.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT + Dan Ndoye 2+ Shots + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 29.8% ยท @ 3.35x
Take this pick โ> STAR_PICKS ยท player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
Statistical analysis for entertainment ยท Not betting advice ยท Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes ยท 18+