Match prediction·World: World Cup·Friday 03 Jul, 03:00 UTC

Switzerland vs Algeria

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Over 2.5 Goals lands at 71% because Switzerland's 1.50 xG and Algeria's 1.12 combine for 2.62 total, with Xhaka and Mahrez driving attacking thrust from open play.

📊 Win probability
42.5% home31.7% draw25.7% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
SwitzerlandstepAlgeria
1.50Base xG · rolling 26-match1.12
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.50Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.12

Switzerland average 4.3 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). Algeria average 6.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
8
5
2
1
11
12
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
1
3
4
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 2.5 goals
71%
Over 3.5 goals
23%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Breel Embolo
Switzerland · Rennes
40%
To score
Mohamed Amoura
Algeria · VfL Wolfsburg
40%
To score
Riyad Mahrez
Algeria · Al-Ahli
36%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Switzerland vs Algeria — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Switzerland and Algeria — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Switzerland 43% · draw 32% · Algeria 26%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Switzerland 20 Algeria
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.