Switzerland 2–0 AlgeriaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 03 July 2026

Switzerland

2–0

Switzerland win

Algeria

> Model verdict

✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Switzerland at 43%, draw at 32%, Algeria at 26%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Switzerland.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Switzerland win

43%

Actual ✓

Draw

32%

Algeria win

26%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.50 – 1.12

Total 2.62

Actual

2 – 0

Total 2 (-0.6 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 0.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed

Banker

Over 2.5 Goals

Pre-match: 71%

✗ Lost

Dark Horse

Over 3.5 Goals

Pre-match: 23%

✗ Lost

Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.16x

Under 10.5 Corners✓
Over 1.5 Goals✓
Over 7.5 SOT✗
Dan Ndoye 2+ Shots✗

> What we said pre-match

"Over 2.5 Goals lands at 71% because Switzerland's 1.50 xG and Algeria's 1.12 combine for 2.62 total, with Xhaka and Mahrez driving attacking thrust from open play."

> More from Bawler