Match prediction·USA: MLS·Sunday 02 Aug, 00:30 UTC

St. Louis CITY SC vs Real Salt Lake

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Over 1.5 Goals sits at 74% probability because St. Louis controls the xG battle (1.60 vs 1.20), signaling a match built for multiple goals.

📊 Win probability
43.7% home30.4% draw25.8% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
St. Louis CITY SCstepReal Salt Lake
1.42Base xG · rolling 26-match1.27
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.60Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.20

St. Louis City average 6.2 corners per game at home this season (22 competitive matches). Real Salt Lake average 4.0 corners per game away from home this season (24 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
7
4
2
1
1
10
12
7
3
1
2
8
9
6
2
1
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5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
74%
St. Louis CITY SC or draw
51%
Over 3.5 goals
22%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

St. Louis CITY SC fixtures & form →Real Salt Lake fixtures & form →

St. Louis CITY vs Real Salt Lake — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between St. Louis CITY and Real Salt Lake — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: St. Louis CITY 44% · draw 30% · Real Salt Lake 26%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

St. Louis CITY predictions & form →Real Salt Lake predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
⚡ Full-time recap available
St. Louis CITY SC 1–1 Real Salt Lake
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.