FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 02 August 2026
St. Louis CITY SC 1–1 Real Salt LakeMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 02 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had St. Louis CITY SC at 44%, draw at 30%, Real Salt Lake at 26%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was St. Louis CITY SC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
SC win
44%
Draw
30%
Actual ✓
Lake win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.60 – 1.20
Total 2.80
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 22%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 74% probability because St. Louis controls the xG battle (1.60 vs 1.20), signaling a match built for multiple goals."