FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Orlando City SC 2–1 Real Salt LakeMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 23 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Orlando City SC at 45%, draw at 24%, Real Salt Lake at 31%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Orlando City SC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
SC win
45%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
Lake win
31%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.82 – 1.50
Total 3.32
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost