FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Orlando City SC 2–1 Real Salt LakeMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Orlando City SC or draw at 69%. Bawler had Orlando City SC at 45%, the draw at 24% and Real Salt Lake at 31%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Orlando City SC win
45%
Result
Draw
24%
Real Salt Lake win
31%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.5
Total 3.3
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 3.3.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.