FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Sporting Kansas City 1–1 St. Louis CITY SCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Sporting Kansas City at 23%, draw at 24%, St. Louis CITY SC at 53%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was St. Louis CITY SC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
23%
Draw
24%
Actual ✓
SC win
53%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.17 – 1.86
Total 3.03
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-1.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Away Win
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 36%
✗ Lost