FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 08 November 2026
AZ Alkmaar 4–3 FC GroningenMatch recap · Sunday, 08 November 2026
How Bawler's pick did
Bawler's pickWon
AZ Alkmaar or Draw✓
AZ Alkmaar Over 13.5 Shots✓
Mexx Meerdink 2+ Shots✓
Logged before kickoff, settled from the final stats. Bawler's pick record →
Pre-match probability vs result
AZ Alkmaar win
57%
Result
Draw
21%
FC Groningen win
22%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 1.3
Total 3.5
Actual
4 – 3
Total 7 (+3.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.9 – 2.2
From the match itself
The match produced 3.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.